Conservative target seats
The 293 seats where the Conservatives came second at the 2024 general election, ranked by the swing needed to win them. It won 121 seats in 2024; 326 are needed for a majority.
Targets in order
Download CSV| # | Constituency | Held by | Majority | Swing needed | Seats if won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendon | Lab | 15 | 0.02% | 122 |
| 2 | Poole | Lab | 18 | 0.02% | 123 |
| 3 | North West Cambridgeshire | Lab | 39 | 0.05% | 124 |
| 4 | Peterborough | Lab | 118 | 0.14% | 125 |
| 5 | Chelsea and Fulham | Lab | 152 | 0.16% | 126 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Lab | 214 | 0.28% | 127 |
| 7 | Forest of Dean | Lab | 278 | 0.29% | 128 |
| 8 | Derbyshire Dales | Lab | 350 | 0.34% | 129 |
| 9 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Lab | 355 | 0.44% | 130 |
| 10 | Ely and East Cambridgeshire | LD | 495 | 0.48% | 131 |
| 11 | North East Hampshire | LD | 634 | 0.57% | 132 |
| 12 | North Somerset | Lab | 639 | 0.60% | 133 |
| 13 | Aylesbury | Lab | 630 | 0.63% | 134 |
| 14 | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Lab | 587 | 0.64% | 135 |
| 15 | South West Norfolk | Lab | 630 | 0.71% | 136 |
| 16 | Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | Lab | 667 | 0.73% | 137 |
| 17 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Lab | 627 | 0.77% | 138 |
| 18 | Lichfield | Lab | 810 | 0.83% | 139 |
| 19 | Ribble Valley | Lab | 856 | 0.83% | 140 |
| 20 | Bracknell | Lab | 784 | 0.90% | 141 |
| 21 | Earley and Woodley | Lab | 848 | 0.93% | 142 |
| 22 | Redditch | Lab | 789 | 0.93% | 143 |
| 23 | Portsmouth North | Lab | 780 | 0.94% | 144 |
| 24 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Lab | 902 | 0.97% | 145 |
| 25 | Ynys Môn | PC | 637 | 0.98% | 146 |
| 26 | North West Leicestershire | Lab | 1,012 | 1.04% | 147 |
| 27 | South Dorset | Lab | 1,048 | 1.07% | 148 |
| 28 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | SNP | 1,001 | 1.08% | 149 |
| 29 | Suffolk Coastal | Lab | 1,070 | 1.08% | 150 |
| 30 | Rother Valley | Lab | 998 | 1.20% | 151 |
| 31 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | SNP | 942 | 1.24% | 152 |
| 32 | Dartford | Lab | 1,192 | 1.34% | 153 |
| 33 | Mid Dorset and North Poole | LD | 1,352 | 1.37% | 154 |
| 34 | Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | Lab | 1,452 | 1.43% | 155 |
| 35 | Clwyd North | Lab | 1,196 | 1.44% | 156 |
| 36 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Lab | 1,361 | 1.46% | 157 |
| 37 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | LD | 1,472 | 1.58% | 158 |
| 38 | Tamworth | Lab | 1,382 | 1.58% | 159 |
| 39 | Eastleigh | LD | 1,546 | 1.67% | 160 |
| 40 | North East Hertfordshire | Lab | 1,923 | 1.83% | 161 |
| 41 | Ashford | Lab | 1,779 | 1.90% | 162 |
| 42 | North East Derbyshire | Lab | 1,753 | 1.91% | 163 |
| 43 | South East Cornwall | Lab | 1,911 | 1.94% | 164 |
| 44 | Mid Derbyshire | Lab | 1,878 | 1.98% | 165 |
| 45 | Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Lab | 1,878 | 2.02% | 166 |
| 46 | Southend West and Leigh | Lab | 1,949 | 2.08% | 167 |
| 47 | Horsham | LD | 2,517 | 2.27% | 168 |
| 48 | Hyndburn | Lab | 1,687 | 2.32% | 169 |
| 49 | Newton Abbot | LD | 2,246 | 2.34% | 170 |
| 50 | Melksham and Devizes | LD | 2,401 | 2.35% | 171 |
| 51 | Lowestoft | Lab | 2,016 | 2.41% | 172 |
| 52 | Bexleyheath and Crayford | Lab | 2,114 | 2.43% | 173 |
| 53 | Newbury | LD | 2,377 | 2.43% | 174 |
| 54 | Chatham and Aylesford | Lab | 1,998 | 2.45% | 175 |
| 55 | Boston and Skegness | Ref | 2,010 | 2.49% | 176 |
| 56 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Lab | 2,266 | 2.49% | 177 |
| 57 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Lab | 2,421 | 2.54% | 178 |
| 58 | St Austell and Newquay | Lab | 2,470 | 2.65% | 179 |
| 59 | Dudley | Lab | 1,900 | 2.66% | 180 |
| 60 | North Warwickshire and Bedworth | Lab | 2,198 | 2.69% | 181 |
| 61 | Darlington | Lab | 2,298 | 2.71% | 182 |
| 62 | North Norfolk | LD | 2,585 | 2.75% | 183 |
| 63 | Thornbury and Yate | LD | 3,014 | 2.83% | 184 |
| 64 | South Norfolk | Lab | 2,826 | 2.85% | 185 |
| 65 | Chipping Barnet | Lab | 2,914 | 2.87% | 186 |
| 66 | Harlow | Lab | 2,504 | 2.89% | 187 |
| 67 | Maidenhead | LD | 2,963 | 2.95% | 188 |
| 68 | Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Lab | 2,311 | 2.96% | 189 |
| 69 | Gravesham | Lab | 2,712 | 3.14% | 190 |
| 70 | Monmouthshire | Lab | 3,338 | 3.29% | 191 |
| 71 | Banbury | Lab | 3,256 | 3.38% | 192 |
| 72 | Congleton | Lab | 3,387 | 3.38% | 193 |
| 73 | Epsom and Ewell | LD | 3,686 | 3.38% | 194 |
| 74 | Rochester and Strood | Lab | 2,930 | 3.44% | 195 |
| 75 | Cities of London and Westminster | Lab | 2,708 | 3.46% | 196 |
| 76 | Kensington and Bayswater | Lab | 2,903 | 3.47% | 197 |
| 77 | Hexham | Lab | 3,713 | 3.58% | 198 |
| 78 | Cannock Chase | Lab | 3,125 | 3.64% | 199 |
| 79 | Tiverton and Minehead | LD | 3,507 | 3.69% | 200 |
| 80 | Gloucester | Lab | 3,431 | 3.76% | 201 |
| 81 | Kettering | Lab | 3,820 | 3.80% | 202 |
| 82 | Stourbridge | Lab | 3,073 | 3.86% | 203 |
| 83 | Worthing West | Lab | 3,949 | 3.87% | 204 |
| 84 | Welwyn Hatfield | Lab | 3,799 | 3.92% | 205 |
| 85 | Sutton and Cheam | LD | 3,801 | 3.99% | 206 |
| 86 | Altrincham and Sale West | Lab | 4,174 | 4.06% | 207 |
| 87 | Bournemouth West | Lab | 3,224 | 4.09% | 208 |
| 88 | Perth and Kinross-shire | SNP | 4,127 | 4.12% | 209 |
| 89 | Nuneaton | Lab | 3,479 | 4.22% | 210 |
| 90 | Mansfield | Lab | 3,485 | 4.24% | 211 |
| 91 | Witney | LD | 4,339 | 4.29% | 212 |
| 92 | Folkestone and Hythe | Lab | 3,729 | 4.31% | 213 |
| 93 | Redcar | Lab | 3,323 | 4.35% | 214 |
| 94 | St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire | LD | 4,621 | 4.37% | 215 |
| 95 | Hertford and Stortford | Lab | 4,748 | 4.40% | 216 |
| 96 | Rugby | Lab | 4,428 | 4.52% | 217 |
| 97 | Scunthorpe | Lab | 3,542 | 4.54% | 218 |
| 98 | South Derbyshire | Lab | 4,168 | 4.56% | 219 |
| 99 | Brent West | Lab | 3,793 | 4.59% | 220 |
| 100 | Vale of Glamorgan | Lab | 4,216 | 4.60% | 221 |
| 101 | Isle of Wight West | Lab | 3,177 | 4.64% | 222 |
| 102 | Northampton South | Lab | 4,071 | 4.64% | 223 |
| 103 | Finchley and Golders Green | Lab | 4,581 | 4.65% | 224 |
| 104 | Swindon North | Lab | 4,103 | 4.65% | 225 |
| 105 | Chelmsford | LD | 4,753 | 4.69% | 226 |
| 106 | South Cotswolds | LD | 4,973 | 4.76% | 227 |
| 107 | Gillingham and Rainham | Lab | 3,972 | 4.83% | 228 |
| 108 | Clwyd East | Lab | 4,622 | 4.84% | 229 |
| 109 | Bicester and Woodstock | LD | 4,958 | 4.94% | 230 |
| 110 | Stafford | Lab | 4,595 | 5.00% | 231 |
| 111 | Chesham and Amersham | LD | 5,451 | 5.01% | 232 |
| 112 | Southend East and Rochford | Lab | 4,027 | 5.08% | 233 |
| 113 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | SNP | 4,870 | 5.15% | 234 |
| 114 | Wycombe | Lab | 4,591 | 5.15% | 235 |
| 115 | Ossett and Denby Dale | Lab | 4,542 | 5.18% | 236 |
| 116 | North Northumberland | Lab | 5,067 | 5.19% | 237 |
| 117 | North East Somerset and Hanham | Lab | 5,319 | 5.20% | 238 |
| 118 | Weston-super-Mare | Lab | 4,409 | 5.20% | 239 |
| 119 | Watford | Lab | 4,723 | 5.31% | 240 |
| 120 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Lab | 3,385 | 5.32% | 241 |
| 121 | Penrith and Solway | Lab | 5,257 | 5.34% | 242 |
| 122 | Colne Valley | Lab | 4,963 | 5.37% | 243 |
| 123 | Dorking and Horley | LD | 5,391 | 5.40% | 244 |
| 124 | Hemel Hempstead | Lab | 4,857 | 5.51% | 245 |
| 125 | Bolton West | Lab | 4,945 | 5.55% | 246 |
| 126 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lab | 4,647 | 5.56% | 247 |
| 127 | Sherwood Forest | Lab | 5,443 | 5.60% | 248 |
| 128 | Carlisle | Lab | 5,200 | 5.66% | 249 |
| 129 | Halesowen | Lab | 4,364 | 5.66% | 250 |
| 130 | Didcot and Wantage | LD | 6,233 | 5.70% | 251 |
| 131 | Waveney Valley | Grn | 5,594 | 5.70% | 252 |
| 132 | Crawley | Lab | 5,235 | 5.74% | 253 |
| 133 | Frome and East Somerset | LD | 5,415 | 5.80% | 254 |
| 134 | Torbay | LD | 5,349 | 5.80% | 255 |
| 135 | North Herefordshire | Grn | 5,894 | 5.85% | 256 |
| 136 | Aldershot | Lab | 5,683 | 5.86% | 257 |
| 137 | Loughborough | Lab | 4,960 | 5.87% | 258 |
| 138 | Henley and Thame | LD | 6,267 | 5.90% | 259 |
| 139 | Surrey Heath | LD | 5,640 | 5.90% | 260 |
| 140 | Milton Keynes North | Lab | 5,430 | 5.91% | 261 |
| 141 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lab | 5,815 | 6.05% | 262 |
| 142 | Bournemouth East | Lab | 5,479 | 6.10% | 263 |
| 143 | Scarborough and Whitby | Lab | 5,408 | 6.12% | 264 |
| 144 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Lab | 5,486 | 6.24% | 265 |
| 145 | Mid Sussex | LD | 6,662 | 6.25% | 266 |
| 146 | Barrow and Furness | Lab | 5,324 | 6.31% | 267 |
| 147 | Rossendale and Darwen | Lab | 5,628 | 6.31% | 268 |
| 148 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lab | 6,331 | 6.39% | 269 |
| 149 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Lab | 5,069 | 6.40% | 270 |
| 150 | Bassetlaw | Lab | 5,768 | 6.43% | 271 |
| 151 | Southport | Lab | 5,789 | 6.43% | 272 |
| 152 | Rushcliffe | Lab | 7,426 | 6.43% | 273 |
| 153 | Tewkesbury | LD | 6,262 | 6.45% | 274 |
| 154 | Plymouth Moor View | Lab | 5,604 | 6.54% | 275 |
| 155 | North Devon | LD | 6,744 | 6.56% | 276 |
| 156 | Honiton and Sidmouth | LD | 6,700 | 6.62% | 277 |
| 157 | Basingstoke | Lab | 6,484 | 6.62% | 278 |
| 158 | Stratford-on-Avon | LD | 7,122 | 6.73% | 279 |
| 159 | Erewash | Lab | 5,859 | 6.81% | 280 |
| 160 | Glastonbury and Somerton | LD | 6,611 | 6.94% | 281 |
| 161 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | SNP | 6,232 | 6.95% | 282 |
| 162 | South Ribble | Lab | 6,501 | 6.96% | 283 |
| 163 | Stoke-on-Trent North | Lab | 5,082 | 7.03% | 284 |
| 164 | Birmingham Northfield | Lab | 5,389 | 7.16% | 285 |
| 165 | South Devon | LD | 7,127 | 7.27% | 286 |
| 166 | Cheltenham | LD | 7,210 | 7.28% | 287 |
| 167 | Harrow West | Lab | 6,642 | 7.34% | 288 |
| 168 | Wrexham | Lab | 5,948 | 7.37% | 289 |
| 169 | West Dorset | LD | 7,789 | 7.41% | 290 |
| 170 | Bolsover | Lab | 6,323 | 7.45% | 291 |
| 171 | Bury North | Lab | 6,944 | 7.63% | 292 |
| 172 | Milton Keynes Central | Lab | 7,291 | 7.64% | 293 |
| 173 | Bolton North East | Lab | 6,653 | 7.67% | 294 |
| 174 | Hitchin | Lab | 8,109 | 7.72% | 295 |
| 175 | Wokingham | LD | 8,345 | 7.73% | 296 |
| 176 | Worcester | Lab | 7,116 | 7.73% | 297 |
| 177 | Stevenage | Lab | 6,618 | 7.75% | 298 |
| 178 | Croydon East | Lab | 6,825 | 7.80% | 299 |
| 179 | Halifax | Lab | 6,269 | 7.80% | 300 |
| 180 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | LD | 8,238 | 7.91% | 301 |
| 181 | Tunbridge Wells | LD | 8,687 | 8.01% | 302 |
| 182 | Southampton Itchen | Lab | 6,105 | 8.02% | 303 |
| 183 | High Peak | Lab | 7,908 | 8.04% | 304 |
| 184 | Truro and Falmouth | Lab | 8,151 | 8.11% | 305 |
| 185 | Wolverhampton North East | Lab | 5,422 | 8.15% | 306 |
| 186 | East Thanet | Lab | 6,971 | 8.16% | 307 |
| 187 | Camborne and Redruth | Lab | 7,806 | 8.17% | 308 |
| 188 | Chippenham | LD | 8,138 | 8.22% | 309 |
| 189 | Bishop Auckland | Lab | 6,672 | 8.25% | 310 |
| 190 | Ipswich | Lab | 7,403 | 8.40% | 311 |
| 191 | Carshalton and Wallington | LD | 7,905 | 8.47% | 312 |
| 192 | Macclesfield | Lab | 9,120 | 8.64% | 313 |
| 193 | Guildford | LD | 8,429 | 8.73% | 314 |
| 194 | Broxtowe | Lab | 8,403 | 8.79% | 315 |
| 195 | Shipley | Lab | 8,603 | 8.91% | 316 |
| 196 | Luton South and South Bedfordshire | Lab | 6,858 | 8.94% | 317 |
| 197 | Wolverhampton West | Lab | 7,868 | 9.01% | 318 |
| 198 | Calder Valley | Lab | 8,991 | 9.06% | 319 |
| 199 | Clacton | Ref | 8,405 | 9.15% | 320 |
| 200 | Canterbury | Lab | 8,653 | 9.16% | 321 |
| 201 | Colchester | Lab | 8,250 | 9.19% | 322 |
| 202 | York Outer | Lab | 9,391 | 9.19% | 323 |
| 203 | Eltham and Chislehurst | Lab | 8,429 | 9.25% | 324 |
| 204 | Hastings and Rye | Lab | 8,653 | 9.41% | 325 |
| 205 | Luton North | Lab | 7,510 | 9.69% | 326 majority |
| 206 | South Cambridgeshire | LD | 10,641 | 9.70% | 327 |
| 207 | East Worthing and Shoreham | Lab | 9,519 | 9.70% | 328 |
| 208 | North Cornwall | LD | 9,957 | 9.72% | 329 |
| 209 | Harpenden and Berkhamsted | LD | 10,708 | 9.86% | 330 |
| 210 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Lab | 10,000 | 9.93% | 331 |
| 211 | Penistone and Stocksbridge | Lab | 8,739 | 9.94% | 332 |
| 212 | Wirral West | Lab | 9,998 | 10.01% | 333 |
| 213 | Feltham and Heston | Lab | 7,944 | 10.22% | 334 |
| 214 | Crewe and Nantwich | Lab | 9,727 | 10.31% | 335 |
| 215 | Stroud | Lab | 11,388 | 10.31% | 336 |
| 216 | Selby | Lab | 10,195 | 10.36% | 337 |
| 217 | Lincoln | Lab | 8,793 | 10.43% | 338 |
| 218 | Leeds South West and Morley | Lab | 8,423 | 10.48% | 339 |
| 219 | Swindon South | Lab | 9,606 | 10.72% | 340 |
| 220 | Lancaster and Wyre | Lab | 9,253 | 10.76% | 341 |
| 221 | Mid Cheshire | Lab | 8,927 | 10.76% | 342 |
| 222 | Northampton North | Lab | 9,014 | 10.78% | 343 |
| 223 | Brentford and Isleworth | Lab | 9,824 | 10.86% | 344 |
| 224 | Derby North | Lab | 8,915 | 10.90% | 345 |
| 225 | Shrewsbury | Lab | 11,355 | 11.01% | 346 |
| 226 | Wells and Mendip Hills | LD | 11,121 | 11.04% | 347 |
| 227 | Bury South | Lab | 9,361 | 11.09% | 348 |
| 228 | Esher and Walton | LD | 12,003 | 11.14% | 349 |
| 229 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Lab | 8,368 | 11.18% | 350 |
| 230 | Warrington South | Lab | 11,340 | 11.42% | 351 |
| 231 | Wimbledon | LD | 12,610 | 11.47% | 352 |
| 232 | Bedford | Lab | 9,430 | 11.60% | 353 |
| 233 | Woking | LD | 11,246 | 11.68% | 354 |
| 234 | Chichester | LD | 12,172 | 11.72% | 355 |
| 235 | Cardiff North | Lab | 11,207 | 11.81% | 356 |
| 236 | Norwich North | Lab | 10,850 | 11.86% | 357 |
| 237 | Lewes | LD | 12,624 | 11.87% | 358 |
| 238 | Taunton and Wellington | LD | 11,939 | 11.87% | 359 |
| 239 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Lab | 9,663 | 11.88% | 360 |
| 240 | Coventry South | Lab | 10,201 | 11.94% | 361 |
| 241 | Leeds North West | Lab | 11,896 | 11.95% | 362 |
| 242 | Cheadle | LD | 12,235 | 12.06% | 363 |
| 243 | Winchester | LD | 13,821 | 12.11% | 364 |
| 244 | Gedling | Lab | 11,881 | 12.20% | 365 |
| 245 | Gower | Lab | 11,567 | 12.25% | 366 |
| 246 | Beckenham and Penge | Lab | 12,905 | 12.36% | 367 |
| 247 | Leicester West | Lab | 8,777 | 12.40% | 368 |
| 248 | Yeovil | LD | 12,268 | 12.53% | 369 |
| 249 | Doncaster Central | Lab | 9,551 | 12.59% | 370 |
| 250 | Warwick and Leamington | Lab | 12,412 | 12.62% | 371 |
| 251 | Putney | Lab | 12,488 | 12.67% | 372 |
| 252 | Battersea | Lab | 12,039 | 12.79% | 373 |
| 253 | Chesterfield | Lab | 10,820 | 13.02% | 374 |
| 254 | Southampton Test | Lab | 9,333 | 13.04% | 375 |
| 255 | West Bromwich | Lab | 9,554 | 13.10% | 376 |
| 256 | Chester North and Neston | Lab | 11,870 | 13.28% | 377 |
| 257 | Coventry North West | Lab | 11,174 | 13.30% | 378 |
| 258 | Eastbourne | LD | 12,204 | 13.38% | 379 |
| 259 | Reading Central | Lab | 12,637 | 13.95% | 380 |
| 260 | St Ives | LD | 13,786 | 14.33% | 381 |
| 261 | Ealing North | Lab | 12,519 | 14.48% | 382 |
| 262 | Enfield North | Lab | 12,736 | 14.64% | 383 |
| 263 | Ealing Central and Acton | Lab | 13,995 | 14.65% | 384 |
| 264 | Doncaster North | Lab | 9,126 | 14.72% | 385 |
| 265 | Exeter | Lab | 11,937 | 14.85% | 386 |
| 266 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Lab | 11,537 | 15.02% | 387 |
| 267 | Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | Lab | 12,632 | 15.39% | 388 |
| 268 | Hampstead and Highgate | Lab | 14,970 | 15.42% | 389 |
| 269 | West Lancashire | Lab | 13,625 | 15.42% | 390 |
| 270 | North Shropshire | LD | 15,311 | 15.44% | 391 |
| 271 | Nottingham South | Lab | 10,294 | 15.66% | 392 |
| 272 | Hayes and Harlington | Lab | 12,031 | 15.70% | 393 |
| 273 | Tynemouth | Lab | 15,455 | 15.96% | 394 |
| 274 | Leeds West and Pudsey | Lab | 12,392 | 16.10% | 395 |
| 275 | Oxford West and Abingdon | LD | 14,894 | 16.19% | 396 |
| 276 | Richmond Park | LD | 17,155 | 16.43% | 397 |
| 277 | Hammersmith and Chiswick | Lab | 15,290 | 16.61% | 398 |
| 278 | Southgate and Wood Green | Lab | 15,300 | 16.75% | 399 |
| 279 | Ealing Southall | Lab | 15,793 | 16.87% | 400 |
| 280 | Kingston and Surbiton | LD | 17,235 | 17.01% | 401 |
| 281 | Brent East | Lab | 13,047 | 17.26% | 402 |
| 282 | Sheffield South East | Lab | 12,458 | 17.42% | 403 |
| 283 | Stretford and Urmston | Lab | 16,150 | 17.56% | 404 |
| 284 | Leeds North East | Lab | 16,083 | 17.81% | 405 |
| 285 | Newcastle upon Tyne North | Lab | 17,762 | 18.27% | 406 |
| 286 | Tooting | Lab | 19,487 | 18.41% | 407 |
| 287 | Croydon West | Lab | 14,226 | 18.66% | 408 |
| 288 | St Albans | LD | 19,834 | 19.22% | 409 |
| 289 | Sefton Central | Lab | 18,282 | 19.27% | 410 |
| 290 | Twickenham | LD | 21,457 | 20.01% | 411 |
| 291 | Mitcham and Morden | Lab | 18,761 | 20.73% | 412 |
| 292 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | LD | 21,472 | 21.68% | 413 |
| 293 | York Central | Lab | 19,154 | 22.11% | 414 |
"Seats if won" adds each target in order to the seats the party already holds, ignoring seats it might lose.
Official results UK Parliament election results data (House of Commons Library). Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0. How we use this data