Marginal seats
The 98 seats where Reform UK came second at the 2024 general election, ranked by the swing needed to win them. It won 5 seats in 2024; 326 are needed for a majority.
#47 Barnsley North: needs 10.59% swing from Lab #14 Barnsley South: needs 6.77% swing from Lab Beckenham and Penge Bethnal Green and Stepney Bicester and Woodstock Birmingham Edgbaston #43 Birmingham Erdington: needs 10.28% swing from Lab Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Birmingham Ladywood Birmingham Northfield Birmingham Perry Barr Birmingham Selly Oak Birmingham Yardley #83 Blackley and Middleton South: needs 16.36% swing from Lab Blackpool North and Fleetwood #65 Blaydon and Consett: needs 13.21% swing from Lab #54 Blyth and Ashington: needs 11.35% swing from Lab #30 Bolton South and Walkden: needs 9.13% swing from Lab Brent East Brent West Bridgwater Bridlington and The Wolds Brigg and Immingham Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Brighton Pavilion Bristol Central Bristol North East Bristol North West Bristol South Broadland and Fakenham Bromley and Biggin Hill Bromsgrove Broxbourne Broxtowe Buckingham and Bletchley Burnley Burton and Uttoxeter Bury North Bury South Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Calder Valley Camborne and Redruth Cambridge Cannock Chase Canterbury Carlisle Carshalton and Wallington #3 Castle Point: needs 4.00% swing from Con Central Devon Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Chatham and Aylesford Cheadle Chelmsford Chelsea and Fulham Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chester North and Neston Chester South and Eddisbury Chesterfield Chichester Chingford and Woodford Green Chippenham Chipping Barnet Chorley Christchurch Cities of London and Westminster #73 City of Durham: needs 14.47% swing from Lab Clacton Clapham and Brixton Hill Colchester Colne Valley Congleton Corby and East Northamptonshire #78 Coventry East: needs 15.70% swing from Lab Coventry North West Coventry South #71 Cramlington and Killingworth: needs 14.12% swing from Lab Crawley Crewe and Nantwich Croydon East Croydon South Croydon West #34 Dagenham and Rainham: needs 9.23% swing from Lab Darlington Dartford Daventry Derby North #23 Derby South: needs 8.03% swing from Lab Derbyshire Dales Dewsbury and Batley Didcot and Wantage Doncaster Central Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Doncaster North Dorking and Horley #22 Dover and Deal: needs 7.94% swing from Lab Droitwich and Evesham Dudley Dulwich and West Norwood Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Ealing Central and Acton Ealing North Ealing Southall Earley and Woodley #36 Easington: needs 9.53% swing from Lab East Grinstead and Uckfield East Ham East Hampshire East Surrey East Thanet East Wiltshire East Worthing and Shoreham Eastbourne Eastleigh Edmonton and Winchmore Hill #90 Ellesmere Port and Bromborough: needs 20.15% swing from Lab Eltham and Chislehurst Ely and East Cambridgeshire Enfield North Epping Forest Epsom and Ewell Erewash #91 Erith and Thamesmead: needs 20.19% swing from Lab Esher and Walton Exeter Exmouth and Exeter East Fareham and Waterlooville Farnham and Bordon Faversham and Mid Kent Feltham and Heston Filton and Bradley Stoke Finchley and Golders Green Folkestone and Hythe Forest of Dean Frome and East Somerset Fylde Gainsborough #62 Gateshead Central and Whickham: needs 11.99% swing from Lab Gedling Gillingham and Rainham Glastonbury and Somerton Gloucester Godalming and Ash Goole and Pocklington #87 Gorton and Denton: needs 18.35% swing from Lab Gosport Grantham and Bourne Gravesham #10 Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes: needs 6.56% swing from Lab Great Yarmouth Greenwich and Woolwich Guildford Hackney North and Stoke Newington Hackney South and Shoreditch Halesowen Halifax Hamble Valley Hammersmith and Chiswick Hampstead and Highgate Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Harlow Harpenden and Berkhamsted Harrogate and Knaresborough Harrow East Harrow West #51 Hartlepool: needs 10.84% swing from Lab Harwich and North Essex Hastings and Rye Havant Hayes and Harlington Hazel Grove Hemel Hempstead Hendon Henley and Thame Hereford and South Herefordshire Herne Bay and Sandwich Hertford and Stortford Hertsmere Hexham #24 Heywood and Middleton North: needs 8.19% swing from Lab High Peak Hinckley and Bosworth Hitchin Holborn and St Pancras Honiton and Sidmouth #2 Hornchurch and Upminster: needs 2.07% swing from Con Hornsey and Friern Barnet Horsham #27 Houghton and Sunderland South: needs 8.96% swing from Lab Hove and Portslade Huddersfield Huntingdon Hyndburn Ilford North Ilford South Ipswich #6 Isle of Wight East: needs 4.88% swing from Con Isle of Wight West Islington North Islington South and Finsbury #63 Jarrow and Gateshead East: needs 12.21% swing from Lab Keighley and Ilkley Kenilworth and Southam Kensington and Bayswater Kettering Kingston and Surbiton #11 Kingston upon Hull East: needs 6.58% swing from Lab #70 Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham: needs 13.97% swing from Lab #60 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: needs 11.76% swing from Lab Kingswinford and South Staffordshire #95 Knowsley: needs 25.41% swing from Lab Lancaster and Wyre Leeds Central and Headingley #72 Leeds East: needs 14.30% swing from Lab Leeds North East Leeds North West Leeds South West and Morley Leeds South Leeds West and Pudsey Leicester East Leicester South Leicester West #50 Leigh and Atherton: needs 10.79% swing from Lab Lewes Lewisham East Lewisham North Lewisham West and East Dulwich Leyton and Wanstead Lichfield Lincoln #94 Liverpool Garston: needs 23.94% swing from Lab Liverpool Riverside #97 Liverpool Walton: needs 27.45% swing from Lab Liverpool Wavertree #96 Liverpool West Derby: needs 26.87% swing from Lab Loughborough #8 Louth and Horncastle: needs 5.93% swing from Con Lowestoft Luton North Luton South and South Bedfordshire Macclesfield Maidenhead Maidstone and Malling #13 Makerfield: needs 6.71% swing from Lab #15 Maldon: needs 6.93% swing from Con Manchester Central Manchester Rusholme Manchester Withington Mansfield Melksham and Devizes Melton and Syston Meriden and Solihull East Mid Bedfordshire Mid Buckinghamshire Mid Cheshire Mid Derbyshire Mid Dorset and North Poole Mid Leicestershire Mid Norfolk Mid Sussex #66 Middlesbrough and Thornaby East: needs 13.36% swing from Lab Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Milton Keynes Central Milton Keynes North Mitcham and Morden Morecambe and Lunesdale New Forest East New Forest West Newark Newbury #67 Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West: needs 13.37% swing from Lab #76 Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend: needs 15.15% swing from Lab Newcastle upon Tyne North Newcastle-under-Lyme Newton Abbot #53 Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor: needs 11.09% swing from Lab #31 Normanton and Hemsworth: needs 9.17% swing from Lab North Bedfordshire North Cornwall North Cotswolds North Devon North Dorset #16 North Durham: needs 7.07% swing from Lab #32 North East Cambridgeshire: needs 9.18% swing from Con North East Derbyshire North East Hampshire North East Hertfordshire North East Somerset and Hanham North Herefordshire North Norfolk North Northumberland North Shropshire North Somerset North Warwickshire and Bedworth North West Cambridgeshire North West Essex North West Hampshire North West Leicestershire North West Norfolk Northampton North Northampton South Norwich North Norwich South Nottingham East #68 Nottingham North and Kimberley: needs 13.47% swing from Lab Nottingham South Nuneaton Old Bexley and Sidcup #21 Oldham East and Saddleworth: needs 7.94% swing from Lab Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Orpington Ossett and Denby Dale Oxford East Oxford West and Abingdon Peckham Pendle and Clitheroe Penistone and Stocksbridge Penrith and Solway Peterborough Plymouth Moor View #80 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport: needs 15.83% swing from Lab #33 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley: needs 9.22% swing from Lab Poole Poplar and Limehouse Portsmouth North #84 Portsmouth South: needs 16.90% swing from Lab Preston Putney Queen's Park and Maida Vale #41 Rawmarsh and Conisbrough: needs 10.19% swing from Lab #7 Rayleigh and Wickford: needs 5.86% swing from Con Reading Central Reading West and Mid Berkshire Redcar Redditch Reigate Ribble Valley Richmond and Northallerton Richmond Park Rochdale Rochester and Strood Romford Romsey and Southampton North Rossendale and Darwen Rother Valley #17 Rotherham: needs 7.44% swing from Lab Rugby Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner #85 Runcorn and Helsby: needs 17.40% swing from Lab Runnymede and Weybridge Rushcliffe Rutland and Stamford #89 Salford: needs 19.02% swing from Lab Salisbury Scarborough and Whitby Scunthorpe Sefton Central Selby Sevenoaks Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough Sheffield Central Sheffield Hallam Sheffield Heeley Sheffield South East Sherwood Forest Shipley Shrewsbury Sittingbourne and Sheppey Skipton and Ripon Sleaford and North Hykeham Slough #82 Smethwick: needs 15.93% swing from Lab Solihull West and Shirley South Basildon and East Thurrock South Cambridgeshire South Cotswolds South Derbyshire South Devon South Dorset South East Cornwall #18 South Holland and The Deepings: needs 7.47% swing from Con South Leicestershire South Norfolk South Northamptonshire South Ribble #28 South Shields: needs 9.04% swing from Lab South Shropshire South Suffolk South West Devon South West Hertfordshire South West Norfolk South West Wiltshire Southampton Itchen Southampton Test Southend East and Rochford Southend West and Leigh Southgate and Wood Green Southport Spelthorne #19 Spen Valley: needs 7.54% swing from Lab St Albans St Austell and Newquay #75 St Helens North: needs 15.04% swing from Lab #79 St Helens South and Whiston: needs 15.71% swing from Lab St Ives St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire Stafford Staffordshire Moorlands #55 Stalybridge and Hyde: needs 11.47% swing from Lab Stevenage #86 Stockport: needs 17.48% swing from Lab #48 Stockton North: needs 10.62% swing from Lab Stockton West #29 Stoke-on-Trent Central: needs 9.08% swing from Lab Stoke-on-Trent North Stoke-on-Trent South Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Stourbridge Stratford and Bow Stratford-on-Avon Streatham and Croydon North Stretford and Urmston Stroud Suffolk Coastal #20 Sunderland Central: needs 7.60% swing from Lab Surrey Heath Sussex Weald Sutton and Cheam Sutton Coldfield Swindon North Swindon South Tamworth Tatton Taunton and Wellington #39 Telford: needs 9.95% swing from Lab Tewkesbury The Wrekin Thirsk and Malton Thornbury and Yate #26 Thurrock: needs 8.62% swing from Lab Tipton and Wednesbury Tiverton and Minehead Tonbridge Tooting Torbay Torridge and Tavistock Tottenham Truro and Falmouth Tunbridge Wells Twickenham Tynemouth Uxbridge and South Ruislip Vauxhall and Camberwell Green #57 Wakefield and Rothwell: needs 11.50% swing from Lab #92 Wallasey: needs 21.05% swing from Lab Walsall and Bloxwich Walthamstow #56 Warrington North: needs 11.48% swing from Lab Warrington South Warwick and Leamington #35 Washington and Gateshead South: needs 9.34% swing from Lab Watford Waveney Valley Weald of Kent Wellingborough and Rushden Wells and Mendip Hills Welwyn Hatfield West Bromwich West Dorset West Ham and Beckton West Lancashire West Suffolk West Worcestershire Westmorland and Lonsdale Weston-super-Mare Wetherby and Easingwold #81 Whitehaven and Workington: needs 15.88% swing from Lab #93 Widnes and Halewood: needs 21.55% swing from Lab #58 Wigan: needs 11.68% swing from Lab Wimbledon Winchester Windsor Wirral West Witham Witney Woking Wokingham Wolverhampton North East #69 Wolverhampton South East: needs 13.76% swing from Lab Wolverhampton West Worcester #64 Worsley and Eccles: needs 13.04% swing from Lab Worthing West Wycombe Wyre Forest #88 Wythenshawe and Sale East: needs 18.67% swing from Lab Yeovil York Central York Outer East Antrim South Antrim Lagan Valley Upper Bann Belfast North East Londonderry West Tyrone Foyle North Antrim Mid Ulster Fermanagh and South Tyrone South Down North Down Strangford Belfast East Belfast West Belfast South and Mid Down Newry and Armagh Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Dunfermline and Dollar Airdrie and Shotts East Kilbride and Strathaven East Renfrewshire Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh South West Alloa and Grangemouth Glasgow South West Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Kilmarnock and Loudoun Livingston Midlothian Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Paisley and Renfrewshire South Angus and Perthshire Glens Stirling and Strathallan West Dunbartonshire Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Gordon and Buchan Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Aberdeen South Edinburgh West Lothian East Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Central Ayrshire Orkney and Shetland Na h-Eileanan an Iar North Ayrshire and Arran Perth and Kinross-shire Dundee Central Falkirk Bathgate and Linlithgow Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway Paisley and Renfrewshire North Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Glasgow East Mid Dunbartonshire Glasgow North Glasgow South Glasgow West Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Coatbridge and Bellshill Hamilton and Clyde Valley Rutherglen Glasgow North East Aberdeen North Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale North East Fife Glenrothes and Mid Fife #74 Aberafan Maesteg: needs 14.48% swing from Lab #40 Alyn and Deeside: needs 10.14% swing from Lab Bangor Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe #44 Bridgend: needs 10.39% swing from Lab Caerfyrddin Caerphilly Cardiff East Cardiff North Cardiff South and Penarth Cardiff West Ceredigion Preseli Clwyd East Clwyd North Dwyfor Meirionnydd Gower #1 Llanelli: needs 1.85% swing from Lab #46 Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare: needs 10.58% swing from Lab Mid and South Pembrokeshire Monmouthshire #5 Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr: needs 4.41% swing from Lab #25 Neath and Swansea East: needs 8.26% swing from Lab #59 Newport East: needs 11.69% swing from Lab #45 Newport West and Islwyn: needs 10.57% swing from Lab #49 Pontypridd: needs 10.67% swing from Lab #52 Rhondda and Ogmore: needs 10.88% swing from Lab #61 Swansea West: needs 11.94% swing from Lab #42 Torfaen: needs 10.26% swing from Lab Vale of Glamorgan Wrexham Ynys Môn Aldershot Aldridge-Brownhills Altrincham and Sale West #4 Amber Valley: needs 4.18% swing from Lab Arundel and South Downs Ashfield Ashford #37 Ashton-under-Lyne: needs 9.58% swing from Lab Aylesbury Banbury #77 Barking: needs 15.15% swing from Lab Barrow and Furness Basildon and Billericay Basingstoke Bassetlaw Bath Battersea Beaconsfield Bedford Bermondsey and Old Southwark Beverley and Holderness Bexhill and Battle Bexleyheath and Crayford Birkenhead Bishop Auckland Blackburn #38 Blackpool South: needs 9.74% swing from Lab Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Bolsover Bolton North East Bolton West #98 Bootle: needs 28.27% swing from Lab Boston and Skegness Bournemouth East Bournemouth West Bracknell Bradford East #12 Bradford South: needs 6.65% swing from Lab Bradford West Braintree Brentford and Isleworth #9 Brentwood and Ongar: needs 6.19% swing from Con Bristol East Seats where Reform UK came second; paler = smaller majority, so an easier target.
# Constituency Held by Majority Swing needed Seats if won 1 Llanelli 1,504 1.85% 6 2 Hornchurch and Upminster 1,943 2.07% 7 3 Castle Point 3,251 4.00% 8 4 Amber Valley 3,554 4.18% 9 5 Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr 3,815 4.41% 10 6 Isle of Wight East 3,323 4.88% 11 7 Rayleigh and Wickford 5,621 5.86% 12 8 Louth and Horncastle 5,506 5.93% 13 9 Brentwood and Ongar 5,980 6.19% 14 10 Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes 4,803 6.56% 15 11 Kingston upon Hull East 3,920 6.58% 16 12 Bradford South 4,392 6.65% 17 13 Makerfield 5,399 6.71% 18 14 Barnsley South 4,748 6.77% 19 15 Maldon 6,906 6.93% 20 16 North Durham 5,873 7.07% 21 17 Rotherham 5,490 7.44% 22 18 South Holland and The Deepings 6,856 7.47% 23 19 Spen Valley 6,188 7.54% 24 20 Sunderland Central 6,073 7.60% 25 21 Oldham East and Saddleworth 6,357 7.94% 26 22 Dover and Deal 7,585 7.94% 27 23 Derby South 6,002 8.03% 28 24 Heywood and Middleton North 6,082 8.19% 29 25 Neath and Swansea East 6,627 8.26% 30 26 Thurrock 6,474 8.62% 31 27 Houghton and Sunderland South 7,169 8.96% 32 28 South Shields 6,653 9.04% 33 29 Stoke-on-Trent Central 6,409 9.08% 34 30 Bolton South and Walkden 6,743 9.13% 35 31 Normanton and Hemsworth 6,662 9.17% 36 32 North East Cambridgeshire 7,189 9.18% 37 33 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley 6,630 9.22% 38 34 Dagenham and Rainham 7,173 9.23% 39 35 Washington and Gateshead South 6,913 9.34% 40 36 Easington 6,542 9.53% 41 37 Ashton-under-Lyne 6,791 9.58% 42 38 Blackpool South 6,848 9.74% 43 39 Telford 8,102 9.95% 44 40 Alyn and Deeside 8,794 10.14% 45 41 Rawmarsh and Conisbrough 6,908 10.19% 46 42 Torfaen 7,322 10.26% 47 43 Birmingham Erdington 7,019 10.28% 48 44 Bridgend 8,595 10.39% 49 45 Newport West and Islwyn 8,868 10.57% 50 46 Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare 7,447 10.58% 51 47 Barnsley North 7,811 10.59% 52 48 Stockton North 7,939 10.62% 53 49 Pontypridd 8,402 10.67% 54 50 Leigh and Atherton 8,881 10.79% 55 51 Hartlepool 7,698 10.84% 56 52 Rhondda and Ogmore 7,790 10.88% 57 53 Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor 8,839 11.09% 58 54 Blyth and Ashington 9,173 11.35% 59 55 Stalybridge and Hyde 8,539 11.47% 60 56 Warrington North 9,190 11.48% 61 57 Wakefield and Rothwell 9,346 11.50% 62 58 Wigan 9,549 11.68% 63 59 Newport East 9,009 11.69% 64 60 Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice 8,979 11.76% 65 61 Swansea West 8,515 11.94% 66 62 Gateshead Central and Whickham 9,644 11.99% 67 63 Jarrow and Gateshead East 8,964 12.21% 68 64 Worsley and Eccles 11,091 13.04% 69 65 Blaydon and Consett 11,153 13.21% 70 66 Middlesbrough and Thornaby East 9,192 13.36% 71 67 Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West 11,060 13.37% 72 68 Nottingham North and Kimberley 9,427 13.47% 73 69 Wolverhampton South East 9,188 13.76% 74 70 Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham 10,679 13.97% 75 71 Cramlington and Killingworth 12,820 14.12% 76 72 Leeds East 11,265 14.30% 77 73 City of Durham 11,757 14.47% 78 74 Aberafan Maesteg 10,354 14.48% 79 75 St Helens North 12,169 15.04% 80 76 Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend 12,817 15.15% 81 77 Barking 11,054 15.15% 82 78 Coventry East 11,623 15.70% 83 79 St Helens South and Whiston 11,945 15.71% 84 80 Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 13,328 15.83% 85 81 Whitehaven and Workington 13,286 15.88% 86 82 Smethwick 11,188 15.93% 87 83 Blackley and Middleton South 10,250 16.36% 88 84 Portsmouth South 13,155 16.90% 89 85 Runcorn and Helsby 14,696 17.40% 90 86 Stockport 15,270 17.48% 91 87 Gorton and Denton 13,413 18.35% 92 88 Wythenshawe and Sale East 14,610 18.67% 93 89 Salford 15,101 19.02% 94 90 Ellesmere Port and Bromborough 16,908 20.15% 95 91 Erith and Thamesmead 16,302 20.19% 96 92 Wallasey 17,996 21.05% 97 93 Widnes and Halewood 16,425 21.55% 98 94 Liverpool Garston 20,104 23.94% 99 95 Knowsley 18,319 25.41% 100 96 Liverpool West Derby 20,423 26.87% 101 97 Liverpool Walton 20,245 27.45% 102 98 Bootle 21,983 28.27% 103
"Seats if won" adds each target in order to the seats the party already holds, ignoring seats it might lose.
Official results UK Parliament election results data (House of Commons Library). Contains Parliamentary information licensed under the Open Parliament Licence v3.0. How we use this data